Assumptions
A Trend Line Is a Story with Its Assumptions Showing
A trend line carries assumptions about what stays constant. Learn to expose them so a projection becomes a clearer…
The reading room
All articles
Explore questions about signals, scenarios and the assumptions behind our ideas of what comes next.
Scenarios
How to Build Two Scenarios Around One Clear Difference
Learn how to build two scenarios around one clear difference, trace its consequences and see which decisions remain…
Methods
Before the Forecast: The Long History of Imagining Tomorrow
The history of imagining tomorrow shows how future-facing stories have voiced hopes and fears, helping readers…
Choices
The Most Likely Future Is Not the Only One to Plan For
The most likely future is not the only one to plan for: learn to spot low-probability changes that could still disrupt…
Signals
A Quiet Hour for Mapping the Changes You Keep Noticing
Use a quiet hour to sort recurring observations into useful signals and open questions, so you can explore change…
Our point of view
One future is never the only one worth seeing.
We treat forecasts as prompts for thought, not promises. Looking across possibilities can make present-day choices easier to examine.